No more posts to this site

As you will have read, our upgraded website www.TechMarketView.com is now LIVE.
This now incorporates our own 'Blogger' CMS system so we will be making no further posts here.

If you want to continue to enjoy Hotviews from TechMarketView, it is still free but only available from our website.

If you have this Blogger site on your RSS feed, I strong suggest you delete it and replace it with the RSS feed you can find on www.TechMarketView.com .

You can sign up for our free HotViews dail email on www.TechMarketView.com too.

Bye Bye and hope to see you again 'in another place' soon!

Things slowly improving for in-line Parity

(By Philip Carnelley, 13 Nov 09, 09:00) IT staffing agency and project solutions provider Parity has issued an IMS saying that trading, 5 months into its second half, has been in line with expectations. It saw “no material change” in conditions. As in its first half, the company is managing to largely maintain revenue and profitability in its primary resourcing division – not an easy feat for an ITSA – and is focusing on diversifying its client base. Its small SI group (c 16% of revenues, around £22m last year), which has been rather struggling – down 13% in the first half – has seen sales ‘improve’. It is also slowly improving profitability, in part due to increasing sub-contracting of work to its new Indian partner, Sonata (see Parity switches offshore partners). Across both divisions, the company says that even short-term visibility of revenues is low, and it does not expect any “near-term strengthening of the markets in which it operates.”

Steria UK revenues drop 15% in Q3

(By Tola Sargeant, Thursday 12th November, 2009, 19:00) Steria’s revenues were €372.9m in Q3, 9.1% down on the same quarter in 2008 on a like-for-like basis. The main culprit was the UK where quarterly revenues dropped by an alarming 15% on an organic basis to €141.7m. Apparently the decline in the UK was mostly due to the delay in the start-up of a number of contracts and a lower than expected level of discretionary spending.

The good news for the UK business, however, is that the company expects positive organic growth in Q4 as the delayed contracts begin. New orders in the UK remained strong in Q3, thanks to wins such as those at the IPCC (see Steria to handle police complaints) and the UK passport office BPO deal (see Steria wins BPO side of CSC’s passport contract), leading to a book to bill ratio of 1.18. This may not be enough to take the UK into positive growth territory for the full year – in the first nine months of FY09 UK revenues declined by 6.5% (organic) to €462m.

For the company as a whole, it’s actually the managed services and business process outsourcing business that is finding it toughest going. Organic revenues in the business unit were down 9.2% in the first nine months of FY09 to €429.3m. By comparison, the Consulting and Systems Integration business only saw a 1.6% drop in revenues in the same period to €749.0m.

BT and CSC bear the cost of delays to NHS IT deals

(By Tola Sargeant, Thursday 12th Nov. 2009, 17:30) I’m grateful to Leo King at Computerworld (see NHS IT project delays cost BT & CSC) for drawing my attention to yesterday’s written parliamentary answers which reveal that the Local Service Providers (LSPs) implementing the National Programme for IT in the NHS (NPfIT) at a local level – now just BT and CSC - have so far been paid less than a quarter of the £5b their contracts were originally projected to cost.

In London, up to 31 Mar ’09 – five years into a ten year contract - BT had received just £326m out of total projected lifetime costs for its contract of £1.0b. While in total, £784m of an anticipated cost of £3.0b had been paid to LSPs responsible for the North East, East, North West & West Midlands regions (£110m of that went to former LSP Accenture, the rest to CSC). The statement also reveals that Fujitsu, former LSP for the South of England, had received £133m by the end of March from a contract that should have been worth £1.1bn.

There is no great surprise in these figures: the suppliers are supposed to be paid on the delivery of working systems and the LSP part of the programme is running several years late. But it does emphasize just how important it is for the two remaining LSPs to meet the crucial deadlines set by the NHS (see November NHS IT deadline draws near for BT and CSC) and ramp up deployment in 2010. It might also make it more tempting for a cash-strapped government to try to claw back some of the funding by curtailing the programme. Taxpayers will, however, welcome the news that for once they’re not bearing the cost of delays.

TechMarketView website upgrade

We are delighted to announce a major upgrade to the TechMarketView website (http://www.techmarketview.com/ (Note - same address as before) This will be live on Monday 16th Nov. 09.

TechMarketView LLP update

TechMarketView only launched its first research programme in April this year but already we have around 40 Foundation Service clients including the top ranking companies in each of the sectors we cover – HP (IT services), Microsoft (Software) and BT (Telcomms). Indeed, companies responsible for around half of the UK’s SITS revenues are now TechMarketView Foundation Service clients.

HotViews is firmly established on the UK scene. The email is sent to thousands everyday and is viewed by around 10,000 people every month. It’s also a major comment source for key media like the FT, the Times and BusinessWeek.

And, of course, we have been adding to our team. It’s not just Richard and Anthony anymore. Puni Rajah is our Client Services Director. Philip Carnelley is our Software Research Director and Tola Sargeant is our Research Director with special responsibility for the Public Sector. More new joiners to be announced very soon!

TechMarketView is about to get even better!

On Monday we launch HotViewsExtra. Each morning HotViews will continue to carry our immediate views on the events of the moment. But, when we have been to the analyst briefings, talked to the CEO or have a more considered view, we will put this exclusively on HotViewsExtra. This is only available to TechMarketView Foundation Service clients who can either access it via the website or request a second HotViewsExtra email which will be sent at around 4.00pm each day.

HotViews, HotViewsExtra and our rapidly growing range of research reports (MarketViews, CompanyViews, IndustryViews, OffshoreViews, SoftwareViews and AnalystViews) now form a superb and fully searchable archive library. So if you want up to date information on a particular company or topic the TechMarketView archive should be your first port of call.

HotViews will continue to be free – but clearly TechMarketView Foundation Service clients get an even more enhanced service!

From Monday we are also enabling Comments on HotViews items. We already get loads of comments. If you still want these to be ‘not for publication’ then send them to us as normal via comments@techmarketview.com. But if you want to share your views with 10,000 others – then post away on HotViews! They will be ‘moderated’ though to avoid the junk and libel actions!

You will notice loads of other changes on the website – like a freely available TechMarketView News section and greatly enhanced Product and Services descriptions.

For our Banner advertisers

HotViews really is one of the best ways of getting to the CXOs of the UK SITS sector – indeed anyone senior with ‘skin in the game’. We have revamped our banner advertisements so even on the email they have live hyperlinks to your very own website. Please contact us (PRajah@TechMarketView.com) if you are interested in using our banner ads.

For TechMarketView Foundation Service clients only

Our TechMarketView Foundation Service clients have been asking us to change to a more industry standard ‘email address + password’ way of access. From Monday your old Username and Password will no longer work.

By Monday every TechMarketView Foundation Service client will have been emailed their new ‘email address + password’. For our larger clients with many people accessing the site, your Company Administrator has not only been given their ‘email address + password’ but this enables them to setup multiple user ‘email address + password’. On Monday, if you haven’t received your ‘email address + password’ from your Company Administrator, please contact them (not us) in the first instance. You will be able to request to receive the HotViews AND HotViewsExtra emails from your account profile on the new website.

Of course, we’d be happy to help if you have any problems. Email Puni on PRajah@TechMarketView.com.

Thankyou, once again, to all our many supporters. ENJOY!

Extended decision making hurts IDOX

(By Tola Sargeant, Thursday 12th Nov. ’09, 09:40) IDOX, a supplier of software and services to the UK public sector, has revealed that revenues and profits will be lower than expected for the year to 31 Oct. ‘09. EBITDA is now expected to be about 9% below market forecasts.

Delays to procurements and a shift towards longer term managed services and maintenance contracts have impacted 2009 revenue recognition. But IDOX claims demand in the local government markets remains strong with high levels of tender activity as local authorities remain under pressure to reduce costs and improve services, which bodes well for 2010.

As to the recruitment side of the business, like its peers IDOX has seen permanent placements suffer as a result of the recession but contract recruitment remain broadly stable. There are however, signs that permanent recruitment is beginning to recover according to the company.

CSC reports a 'solid' Q2

(By Tola Sargeant, Thursday 12th November 2009, 09:15) CSC has published what it describes as a ‘solid’ set of Q2 results. Revenues are down almost 5% on the previous year’s quarter at $4.0b (Q209 $4.2b) and EPS came in at $1.4, above the financial analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.35 (but down almost 50% on Q209 because that quarter included net tax benefits of $2.27 from the resolution of tax audits). Overall, cash flow, operating income and margins all improved sequentially and year on year.

The North America Public Sector business is driving any growth with revenues up 8.5% from the previous year at $1.62b. Managed Services Sector revenue was down 12.5% (7.4% in constant currency) at $1.58b, but management claim new business activity in this line of business is now strong as businesses look to outsourcing to cut costs. Unsurprisingly, demand for short term IT consulting projects remains subdued and Business Solutions and Services revenue was $0.86b, down 10.7% (7.5%cc).

As usual, CSC provided very little granularity on the performance of the business geographically other than commenting on the analyst call that in Europe most larger locations are doing pretty well apart from Germany, which is ‘a bit weak’. We’ll have to wait for more detail on how the UK is holding up although there was plenty of talk on the analyst call about CSC’s NHS contracts. The company appeared positive about the outlook for the c£3b of deals, describing the go-live of iSoft’s Lorenzo Regional Care at NHS Bury earlier this month as a ‘major turning point’. While we agree it is an important achievement, the real test will be the next milestone - getting Lorenzo working smoothly in Morecambe Bay, a much more complex acute Trust, by next March. Even iSoft’s UK-based MD Adrian Stevens admitted to me earlier this week that Morecambe Bay was going to be the real challenge. If it is successful - and there are no major changes to the National Programme for IT in the NHS as a result of a change of government - then CSC’s UK performance should get a boost in 2010.

No stopping Acer

(By Richard Holway 8.30am Thurs 12th Nov 09) I have played a little game recently, asking people who is the #1 suppler of PCs in the European market. Everyone answers either HP or Dell and are surprised when I tell them it's Acer – because they are King of the low cost Netbook.

This situation was maintained in Q3 according to Gartner. In Western Europe Acer had a 28.3% market share compared with HP’s 21.5% share. Overall, the number of PCs shifted was down slightly. As units get cheaper and cheaper, I expect the revenues earned declined quite significantly.

UK PC sales were down 2.3%. If you want another example of ‘Diversity of Performance” this is about the best. Acer sales were up a massive 35%. At the other end of the price scale, Apple was up 3.8%. Conversely Toshiba, Dell and HP slumped 26%, 15% and 10% respectively.

To repeat, Gartner figures are volume/unit based – by revenue it must have been even more awful.

BT Global Services on the right road?

(By Richard Holway 8.00am Thurs 12th Nov 09) BT’s results for Q2 were bad but not as bad as expected. At £5122m, revenues were down 3% or down 6% on an organic, constant currency basis.

Of course, it is BT Global Services which most interests us. Certainly, at the profits level there is cause for mild optimism. EBITDA of £95m was up 53% on Q1 although still down 10% on Q2 2008. However, an operating loss of £94m was reported. The revenue situation is complex. Down 3% at £2024m at the headline’ level, down 8% organically but ‘only’ down 5% if you adjust for the ‘major contract milestone’ payment made in Q2 2008. As you can see, even at the EBITDA level, profit margins are still <5%.

Order intake, at £1.4b, was the same as Q1. But orders are for lower values and BT reports continued delay in customer decision making due to “the current economic climate”. BT GS intends to focus on “higher quality new business” which “will lead to a lower order intake compared with the last FY”. That’s sounds like a good policy to me!

The informal feedback that we get certainly indicates a BT Global Services that has faced the abyss and has realised and reacted to its significant problems. There seems to be a mood of ‘we are on the right road’. Of course, the spectre of the NHS IT programme still looms as the deadline of all deadlines fast approaches.

BT Global Services, as we have reported on many occasions, is quite different in the UK than internationally. In the UK it is much more your standard IT services player. Outside the UK it is just a network management company for large enterprises. It faced even more problems in its international operations than in the UK. They have since sold off units in France in Germany.

My own view is that BT are clearing up parts of BT Global Services for a sale when valuations improve. They at least seem to be on the right road to achieve this.

Aveva finds new business hard to come by

(By Philip Carnelley, 12 Nov 09, 08:15) Aveva, the CAD/CAM software company, has reported that its half year revenues fell 7% to £69.9m, while PBT fell from 20% £29.2m to £23.3m. Still, a PBT margin of 33% is pretty good in the present climate. The drop in sales is not unexpected: as we reported back in May (Aveva shines – but storm clouds loom) a general funding squeeze in its core areas of oil, gas, power and marine is inhibiting its clients’ major capex projects. The biggest difficulties were in marine in Asia Pacific, and in North America. The company is increasingly reliant on recurring revenues – now 69% of the total. This is in part because of a drop in license fee sales, but also due to an increased number of customers adopting a rental purchase model - with lower payments in the first couple of years, likely paid from opex not capex, but higher over the longer term. Aveva restructured operations during the half and so profitability should rise going forward. Meanwhile the still-healthy margins helped a rise in net cash from £101m to £134m.

HP augments networking capability with 3Com

(By Philip Carnelley, 11 Nov 09, 22:00) HP has announced that it is to boost its networking capability by buying venerable network products provider 3Com, for $2.7b in cash – around 2x revenues and a 53% premium on its closing price yesterday. 3Com’s board has approved the deal.

Founded in 1979, 3Com has been almost synonymous with Ethernet products. Ethernet is the basis for most local/wide area networking today and was invented at Xerox Parc by a team including 3Com’s co-founder, Bob Metcalfe.

This is a direct response to Cisco. Cisco has been increasingly looking to move up the IT food chain, taking on increasing numbers of software applications, and setting up with EMC to sell data centre solutions (Cisco and EMC combine to form Acadia, take on HP and IBM). HP is now expanding in the other direction. This move also helps HP match IBM in yet another arena. As networking is – unlike other areas of IT – largely standards-compliant, then increased competition is likely to drive down margins through extended user choice.

In a linked move – to "facilitate communications with investors regarding today's announcement" – HP issued a trading update for its FY09. Q4 revenues were down 8% (5% at constant currency) to $30.8bn. Eps was however up 18% on the prior year. The one snippet of information in the release was that sales were boosted by significant growth in China. A full earnings release is scheduled for 23rd November.

More for a lot, lot less at Vodafone

(By Richard Holway 9.00am Wednesday 11th Nov 09) There are very few FTSE100 constituents that fall into the TMT category. Vodafone is one of them. Which is one reason why I have always taken a keen interest in their fortunes. The other is that I have been a long term shareholder ever since I got my first brick of a mobile phone back in the 1980s. For almost all that time, I have been used to uninterrupted revenue, profits and share price growth. Mobile was afterall the place to be.

Although Vodafone did indeed report revenue growth of 9% (to £21.8b) in the six months to 30th Sept 09, its excellent profits growth of 73% (to £5.75b) was fuelled by CEO Vittorio Colao’s £1b cost cutting programme last year.

The news that struck me most was Vodafone’s performance in India. If there was ever a growth market for mobile phones then the BRICs are it. Vodafone’s future probably lies in making it big there. But the price competition in India seems to be immense. Vodafone boosted customer numbers by 50% in India but its revenues were up just 20%. A price war between at least 12 competing suppliers is dragging down prices to levels unimaginable here. And with it margins.

The same trend applies in the UK and the rest of Vodafone’s established markets. The availability of the iPhone on Vodafone, O2 and Orange in 2010 will create price competition even at the premium end of the business. Also the huge increase in the use of mobile data services will put a strain on the network requiring additional investment.

So from almost every direction a case of More for a Lot, Lot Less.

Micro Focus integrations ahead of plan

(By Philip Carnelley, 11 Nov 09, 08:00) Micro Focus has issued a trading update on its first half results. It expects to report revenues of c$195m - a rise of 44%. Like-for-like growth would be around 5%. On a call this morning CFO Nick Bray said they weren’t overly excited about that 5% figure, but they are pleased with the performance of the new acquisitions. The revenue run rate from the Borland and Compuware businesses is 8-10% ahead of expectations and Micro Focus is making rather faster progress on cost reductions, improving EBITDA significantly: 30% anticipated rather than 15% as previously. On the call, Bray commented that the much-needed new product road map is now being unveiled to analysts so we are hoping for an update very soon. No word on the hunt for a new CEO.

The market really liked all this! MicroFocus shares currently up 19% at 406p. That's a 38% rise this YTD.

Adobe pinning its growth hopes on the Enterprise

(By Philip Carnelley, 10 Nov 09, 20:00) Last week we attended an analyst event addressing “Adobe in the Enterprise.” Adobe is, in a sense, one of the industry’s better-kept secrets. Despite the ubiquity of its pdf reader and Flash website software, few appreciate that it is one of the top dozen software vendors globally, with over $3b in revenue. Even fewer probably appreciate that around 30% of that is its "Enterprise" business. But sharp-eyed TechMarketView subscribers will have seen in our CompanyViews report earlier this year that we ranked Adobe the 11th biggest software supplier to the UK market, with an estimated £115m in software revenue. The proportion of Enterprise sales is lower in Europe than the US, but the UK is one of Adobe’s ‘tier 1’ countries, and we estimate "Enterprise" is north of 25%. However Adobe has struggled to maintain revenues of late and indeed they're down 18% in the first nine-months. Today, it announced layoffs of 680 jobs, around 9% of its workforce.

Adobe is anticipating that "enterprise business" will be the main source of revenue growth for the next couple of years. That said, its traditional desktop publishing business should receive a fillip next year when the new version of its Creative Suite is launched.

For Adobe "enterprise business" means automating business processes using a range of products. Its USP (this is our assessment, not Adobe’s) is that it has a holistic approach to process automation that can encompass fully-paper through to fully-electronic versions of the same process. It talks a lot about the ‘user-centric’ approach. For example, a pdf form can be filled in online; or it can be printed off, filled in manually, then scanned and reinserted into the process. We had an interesting presentation from the CIO of HMCS (Her Majesty’s Courts Service) who explained that – among many other considerations – young judges work prodominantly electronically, while elder ones never use technology newer than a fountain pen. Their needs must all be met.

Adobe is finding most traction for its approach in heavily regulated sectors, particularly government and banking. Key customers in the UK – in addition to HMCS – include HMRC and the FSA. Enterprise business is driven at least in part by its SI partners including majors like Accenture and Capgemini, and other resellers.

Despite the undoubted pressure on government spending, the drive to put government processes online both for better citizen engagement as well as greater internal efficiencies makes us think Adobe is right to look to its enterprise business for growth. One supportive statistic: Kumar Vora, VP and GM of Adobe’s ‘Livecycle’ product line (a large chunk of the Enterprise business) said that official US government estimates are that in 2005, its citizens spent ten times as much time filling in government forms (a mere 10 billion hours p.a.!) as they did in 1981.

Regent Conference 2010

(By Richard Holway 5.00pm Tuesday 10th Nov 09) Just thought you might like to make a note in your new 2010 diary for the 2010 Intellect Regent Conference. It’s on Thurs 4th Feb 10 at the Lancaster Hotel in London.

Personally I think it has the BEST line up for a long, long time. And I’m not just saying that because our very own Anthony Miller is on the bill.

The complete line up looks like this:

• Jeremy Paxman, Conference Chairman
• Paul Robinson, Director, Chief Sterling Strategist, Barclays Capital
• Andy Green, Chief Executive, Logica plc
• Ben Verwaayen, Chief Executive, Alcatel-Lucent
• Paul Walker, Chief Executive, The Sage Group plc
• Simone Brunozzi, Head of Web Services, Amazon.com Inc
• Steve Prentice, Fellow, Gartner Group Inc
• Peter Rowell, Executive Chairman, Regent Partners International
• Jon Moulton
• Anthony Miller, Managing Partner, TechMarketView LLP
  

For more information or to book your place contact Contact: Tina Compton Tel 020 7331 2011 or tina.compton@intellectuk.org

Sadiq departs Innovation Group

(By Richard Holway 5.00pm Tues 10th Nov 09) The Innovation Group (TIG) announced this afternoon that Hassan Sadiq has “stepped down as both Director and CEO and has left the Group”. Andy Roberts has assumed the role of Exec Chairman until Russell Reynolds finds a new CEO.

This year has already seen Geoff Squire steps down as Chairman of Innovation (see HotViews 6th Jan 09) and Andy Roberts takes chair at Innovation (Hotviews 9th Mar 09). A clear changing of the old guard.

Judging by the emails I’ve had, they all agree with George O’Connor at Panmure Gordon who wrote “News that CEO Hassan has stepped down should be greeted favourably”. Although the shares have fallen 2% to 12p on the news. This is getting further and further away from the offers supposedly made for Innovation by various private equity groups this year. Indeed, further and further away from the 30p the shares reached earlier in the year. No wonder shareholders are 'frustrated'.

I’ve known Roberts (who also chairs Kewill) for many years and he’s a very able pair of hands. Innovation actually has a lot going for it if steered correctly. It also needs to get its message over more clearly. So I too would view today’s developments favourably.

Logica reorganisation revisited

(By Richard Holway 12.00pm Tuesday 10th Nov 09) A number of readers contacted us querying my post on the new Executive Committee responsibilities at Logica. I should have made it clear that these were the new responsibilities from 1st Jan 10. Conversely, Logica should have made it clearer that this was a more extensive ‘shuffling of the deck’ than their RNS led one to believe.

Jean-Marc Lazzari had originally been appointed as global CEO of the Outsourcing line. Lazzari moves to CEO France from 1st Jan 10. The current CEO of Logica France, Patrick Guimbal, takes on the new global service line in Business Consulting. Lazzari’s place at Outsourcing is taken by Joe Hemming, who many of you will know as the current CEO of Logica UK. The role of CEO Logica UK is taken by Craig Boundy (Craig is currently CEO Global Operations)

So if you add this to the various other announcements made today, this is a pretty major reshuffle. Many of the managers have only been in their current posts for less than 18 months.

Reorganisations happen for various reasons. Indeed, some companies do this automatically each year to keep people fresh. Others value stability and experience. Others use reorganisations to clear out dead wood and/or under performing managers. Others reorganise to meet changed market opportunities. I wish I could tell you which of these applies to Logica’s reorganistion. Or perhaps they all do?

Footnote - Since writing the above we've had several comments. Yet again 'not for publication'. But one signed off with "Yet again at Logica, too many chiefs and not enough Indians" - which I thiught was rather good in the circumstances!

Logica realigns Executive Committee responsibilities

(By Richard Holway 9.30am Tuesday 10th Nov 09) Logica announced the creation of a new ‘global service line’ in Business Consulting to be headed by Patrick Guimbal. Earlier this year, Logica established a Global Outsourcing Services line. Amanda Mesler (currently heads Logica North America) takes on the role of Chief Client Officer.

For the record (and those subscribers who increasingly rely on the HotViews archives for such information) the full Executive lineup at Logica with effect from 1st Jan 2010 is:

Andy Green, Chief Executive Officer

Joe Hemming, CEO Outsourcing Services

Patrick Guimbal, CEO Business Consulting

Craig Boundy, CEO UK

Jean-Marc Lazzari, CEO France

Wilbert Kieboom, CEO Benelux

Stefan Gardefjord, CEO Sweden

João Baptista, CEO Northern and Central Europe

Serge Dubrana, CEO Rest of World and Global Operations

Seamus Keating, Chief Financial and Operations Officer

Stephen Kelly, Chief People Officer

Amanda Mesler, Chief Client Officer

Crister Stjernfelt, Executive Committee advisor

Trouble in gamingland

(By Richard Holway 9.30am Tuesday 10th Nov 09) If there is one theme to sum up the technology scene right now it is ‘Diversity’. In particular how some sub sectors are doing extremely well whilst others fade. Computer games have been a buoyant sector for decades – indeed the UK was once the leading global developer. The market was simple. You developed a game for either a PC or a dedicated gaming console like the X Box or Wii. But it really looks as if consumers have turned off that kind of game in favour of handhelds and games played on social networking sites. Indeed, not just any handheld – but the iPhone/iPod Touch in particular. Not just any social networking site, but Facebook in particular

An example of this came to light this morning with Electronics Arts announcing yet another $391m loss in Q3 and the cutting of another 1500 jobs. Their trading statement blamed the slump in traditional console games market. Even though they are responible for the biggest seller this year – the Beatles version of Rock Band. EA have bought Playfish – which makes ‘free’ games for Facebook and MySpace users.

Substitute

(By Richard Holway 9.30am Tuesday 10th Nov 09) The many HotViews readers who attended the ITNEA Dinner at the Landmark Hotel last night will know this story. On Sunday night I was called by Jane Tozer who, amongst a host of other responsibilities like being an NED at John Lewis, heads the ITNEA (a network of Chairmen and NEDs of UK quoted IT companies) called to say that their keynote speaker for their Monday dinner, Vince Cable, couldn’t make it. Could I make a speech instead? I rather reluctantly agreed – mainly because I rate Jane and I wanted to help. So I spent a few hours scribbling some notes and set off to London. During cocktails, I was still expecting to speak. During the starter, I was still expected to speak. Then a rather hassled Vince Cable arrives in between a 3-line whip at the House. He gave his speech between courses and left before the salmon!

Jane was very fulsome in her thanks to me. I wasn’t quite sure if the audience was sorry or relieved that I hadn’t spoken. Anyway, I’ve been asked to come back to address a future ITNEA dinner!

Vince Cable was in his usual downbeat/’Prepare for the End of World’ form. I still think he prays for a hung Parliament with a Government of National Unity appointed with him as Chancellor. If so, God help anyone with a large house (the Liberals will bring in a Mansion Tax), a high income (they will soak the rich) or looking forward to making a capital gain on the sale of their business (the Liberals will equalize CGT with the top rate of income tax).