(By Richard Holway 5.00pm 12th March 09) Today, IDC released their forecasts for global mobile phone shipments. You can read their Press Release here IDC Predicts Worldwide Mobile Phone Shipments to fall 8.3% in 2009The sharpness of the downturn almost takes your breath away. An 11.6% decline in Q4 2008 and 10% global decline forecast for ‘traditional mobile phones’ 2009 but a 20.3% decline in the US. Smartphones are expected to show growth – 7.9% in the US and 3.4% worldwide. But even here, IDC has slashed its forecast from 8.7% just a few months ago.
To quote IDC - “The double-digit growth rates the BRIC countries have seen in the past are also expected to slow to a collective growth rate of 0.3%. India still remains the bright spot within that group, while Russia is experiencing a severe cut back in consumer spending and is predicted to drop significantly.” At one time, forecasters had suggested that any downturn in the developed world would be more than offset by growth in the BRICs. But, as we have illustrated before, if the US sneezes, it is factories and call centres in China that catch pneumonia
Of course, it’s all down to the economy, stupid. The anecdotal evidence I have collected from folks in the UK is that it’s now much more fashionable to talk about how you have kept your old phone but negotiated a much better (cheaper) deal. As in ‘austerity is the new rampant consumption’.
The knock-on effect of this could be huge – from Nokia to Vodafone to Carphone Warehouse.
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