Tuesday, 9 June 2009

Gartner cuts global IT forecasts

(By Richard Holway 4.00pm 9th June 09) Gartner has cut its forecasts for IT spend in 2009. Gartner now expects IT budgets to fall 4.7 percent this year, compared with its forecast three months ago that called for budgets to rise 0.16 percent from 2008. See Reuters.

The new forecast was based on Gartner's survey of 900 chief information officers at large global companies who are collectively responsible for about $77 billion in spending. "Renegotiating vendor contracts and head count reductions were the primary focus areas for accommodating budget reductions. CIOs said more work would be shifted to in-house resources and delayed capital expenditure more than reducing IT project investments," Gartner EXP Group vice president and Research Head Mark McDonald said.

Comment. Well, we don’t do our own global IT forecasts but we have, none-the-less, openly questioned the forecasts from Forrester and Gartner for continued growth even when the economy was collapsing. TechMarketView’s forecasts are just for SITS in the UK where we have been completely consistent for nearly two years now in forecasting a decline in 2009 before a modest recovery in H2 2010. We have no reason to alter those trendline forecasts as our competitors one by one fall into line with us!

This is deadly serious though. Inaccurate trendline forecasts are not just irritating. Aligning investment programmes to them can be at best expensive – at worst terminal.

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